Massive deportation backfiring on Republicans

Following economy/inflation, the No. 2 issue for voters in the last presidential election was immigration/border control.

It’s no exaggeration to say that Donald J. Trump’s promise to close the border and crack down on illegal immigration was largely responsible for his election.

Democrats were too lax on the issue, and they lost.

I’m not sure the Left has learned that lesson, but I can see a parallel mistake being made by the Right.

While a majority of Americans approved of mass deportation when it was promised, I predicted they would be repelled by it in practice. That is happening. It is backfiring.

Nor would Trump be able to deport them all in his four-year term, I wrote. It is physically impossible, but Republicans, in their mad scramble to dream the impossible dream,  are overdoing it, and this will be a key reason they will lose their majority in the next congressional election.

There are two opinions in the above statement. I will prove the first (they are overdoing it) while proof of the second (losing the House) will have to wait for an election.

As to the first, follow me.

Public opinion on illegal immigration has undergone a significant reversal from the pathway leading up to the 2024 election to the present, a shift that reflects that harsh enforcement is rejected by a majority of Americans. Why is that? Because most Americans are fair-minded, and reasonable. They cluster around the center, alternatively leaning Left (Barack Obama and Joe Biden) and Right (George W. Bush and Donald J. Trump.) In essence, we are a centrist nation. 

By the numbers, all from Gallup:

Americans who want to reduce legal immigration went from 55% in June 2024, to 30% in June 2025, a huge 25% decrease. 

In the same period, support for the mass deportation promised by Trump declined 9%, from 47% in June 2024, to 38% in June 2025.

Support for expanding the border wall lost its majority, decreasing 8%, from 53 to 45%.

The desire to hire more border control agents declined a steep 17%, from 76% to 59%.

Then, by July 2025. . . 

52% of Americans felt current immigration enforcement by the Trump administration was “too harsh."

54% believed that ICE had “gone too far.”

Disapproval of ICE had increased to a majority of 56%.

Finally, creating  a pathway to legal status for illegals increased from 55% in December 2024 to 64% in June 2025, up 9% and to a substantial majority.

Now that is an important number. For people who regard immigration as an important issue, it is very bad news for Republicans. The GOP won last time with the help of Independents, and those people are being driven away by (among other things) ICE’s tactics. Support from Independent voters has plummeted from just under 50% before the election to 29% now. 

Let’s return to the almost two-thirds of Americans who want to create a path to legal status, not necessarily citizenship, which I oppose.

I oppose citizenship for illegals for two reasons:

1- Citizenship would reward their illegal behavior. It would be consequence-free, and encourage more illegal entry.

2- If they could not attain citizenship, they would not be able to vote, and if they could not vote, they would cease to be a political football, which is an obstacle to resolving the problem. And, no, with very few exceptions, noncitizens don’t vote. https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/blog/myths-about-noncitizen-voting-heritage-foundation-data/

Many on the Right half-jokingly refer to illegals as “future Democrats,” and it is true the Democratic party does better with naturalized Americans than do Republicans. (There are historic exceptions, such as Cubans, Evangelical Christians, and business-class Indians, who lean Right.)

Proposals to solve the illegal immigrant problem have been put on the table by such distinguished people as Barack Obama, here is his 2014 speech on the subject, a plan by Florida Republican U.S. Rep Maria Elvira Salazar,  and my own self. 

If this is a subject that interests you, I hope you will follow one of the links. The general outline of all three is pretty much the same. They all contain mercy for illegals, and justice for those who support immigration law.

There are off ramps. We have to demand that our elected officials take them.